johntaps
13-03-2010, 10:40 AM
Property sales data and price changes can be measured and monitored over time.
What other demographic and financial data could be measured and combined with property price growth data trends?http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif
Different types of property (assets) in the same suburb demonstrate different price growth performance. And demonstrate that property (asset) peaks and troughs occur at different times, although all of these property (assets) exist in the same suburb.
The concept of fundamental analysis and incorporating elements of technical analysis could be possible for property.
Say look at a product like Stock Doctor http://www.lincolnindicators.com.au/StockMarketSoftware (http://www.lincolnindicators.com.au/StockMarketSoftware)
It provides professional fundamental analysis and portfolio management tools. You can combine fundamental and technical analysis to screen for potential buying, holding and selling opportunities.
Using a similar model break it down to a Property Doctor concept:
1. Financial health - Gain insight into all suburbs Australia wide
2. Star property - Filter and list undervalued suburbs
3. Special rules - use a disciplined framework combining fundamental and qualitative factors to help you isolate quality, undervalued suburb and property before you invest.
4. Property filter - use advance filter to find suitable suburbs and suitable property for your unique criteria.
5. Valuations - identify undervalued suburbs
6. Portfolio manager - track your property progress
7. Charts and Graphs - monitor your property asset and analyse other property performance.
8. Watchlists - sales data of comparable property in your suburb is updated constantly so you can monitor growth trends.
9. Additional features e.g. downloads, support, software, mentors, seminar etc
Now where can the data be sourced from?
* Suburb data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) census or other ABS data
* Census data includes average household incomes, household profiles etc . so affordability can be measured and how many single person households etc. This could assist you to understand risks of falling affordability and hence buyer behaviour and activity
* ABS has a massive amount of data eg unemployment rates, housing data, population etc
* The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has a massive amount of data eg interest rates, housing loan arrears rates, consumer sentiment and other financial data e.g. re affordability
Some of the above stats influence and drive property growth eg population, migration, interest rates, unemployment, consumer sentiment etc
* property sales data can be purchased direct from state government departments under a reseller license agreement
NB there are numerous resellers in Australia that sell sales data to the public eg http://www.lands.nsw.gov.au/valuation/property_sales_information (http://www.lands.nsw.gov.au/valuation/property_sales_information)
How specific can property growth trend measurement be?
Highly specific.
Earlier on I mentioned that different types of property (assets) in the same suburb demonstrate different price growth performance.
See 4 case studies below that demonstrate this:
1. House Sales Case Study – Noranda 4 bed, 2 bath houses on 700 – 1000sqm lots. This market rose from a quarterly average of $338,800 in June 2005 to a quarterly average of $520,000 in June 2006 or approximately $15,000 per month over this period of time. Since June 2006 this market has risen again to a quarterly average of $604,000 in Dec 2006, but then fallen in December 2007 to a quarterly average of $504,000. An average price drop of $100,000 over 12 months.
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-700-1000sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-700-1000sqm/)
2. House Sales Case Study – Noranda 3 bed, 1 bath 700-1000sqm lots. This market rose from a quarterly average of $257,083 in Dec 2004 to a quarterly average of $492,000 in Dec 2006 or approximately $10,000 per month over this period of time. Since December 2006 this market has been relatively flat with quarterly average price being $485,000 in Dec 2007. Predominantly duplex residential potential
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-3-bed-1-bath-on-700-1000sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-3-bed-1-bath-on-700-1000sqm/)
3. House Sales Case Study – Noranda WA 4 bed, 2 bath houses on 350-600sqm. This market rose from a quarterly average of $347,500 in Sept 2005 to a quarterly average of $571,000 in Dec 2007. After Dec 2007 there was one sale at a price of $597,000 in Mar 2008 quarter.
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-350-600sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-350-600sqm/)
4. House Sales Case Study – Noranda 3 bed, 1 bath 350-600sqm lots. The market rose approximately from a quarterly average of $185,000 in March 2005 to $385,000 in December 2006 or approximately $10,000 per month over this 18 month period. After Dec 2006 there was one sale at a price of $402,000 in Dec 2007 quarter.
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-3-bed-1-bath-on-350-600sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-3-bed-1-bath-on-350-600sqm/)
A "Property Doctor" software could be developed it is just a matter of determining what factors are relevant, what should be measured and what customers need?
Now imagine if this data above was combined with ABS data, RBA data, state government data, and other relevant research data?
Would that be powerful information?
What do you think could be measured?
What factors would be relevant?
What other demographic and financial data could be measured and combined with property price growth data trends?http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif
Different types of property (assets) in the same suburb demonstrate different price growth performance. And demonstrate that property (asset) peaks and troughs occur at different times, although all of these property (assets) exist in the same suburb.
The concept of fundamental analysis and incorporating elements of technical analysis could be possible for property.
Say look at a product like Stock Doctor http://www.lincolnindicators.com.au/StockMarketSoftware (http://www.lincolnindicators.com.au/StockMarketSoftware)
It provides professional fundamental analysis and portfolio management tools. You can combine fundamental and technical analysis to screen for potential buying, holding and selling opportunities.
Using a similar model break it down to a Property Doctor concept:
1. Financial health - Gain insight into all suburbs Australia wide
2. Star property - Filter and list undervalued suburbs
3. Special rules - use a disciplined framework combining fundamental and qualitative factors to help you isolate quality, undervalued suburb and property before you invest.
4. Property filter - use advance filter to find suitable suburbs and suitable property for your unique criteria.
5. Valuations - identify undervalued suburbs
6. Portfolio manager - track your property progress
7. Charts and Graphs - monitor your property asset and analyse other property performance.
8. Watchlists - sales data of comparable property in your suburb is updated constantly so you can monitor growth trends.
9. Additional features e.g. downloads, support, software, mentors, seminar etc
Now where can the data be sourced from?
* Suburb data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) census or other ABS data
* Census data includes average household incomes, household profiles etc . so affordability can be measured and how many single person households etc. This could assist you to understand risks of falling affordability and hence buyer behaviour and activity
* ABS has a massive amount of data eg unemployment rates, housing data, population etc
* The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has a massive amount of data eg interest rates, housing loan arrears rates, consumer sentiment and other financial data e.g. re affordability
Some of the above stats influence and drive property growth eg population, migration, interest rates, unemployment, consumer sentiment etc
* property sales data can be purchased direct from state government departments under a reseller license agreement
NB there are numerous resellers in Australia that sell sales data to the public eg http://www.lands.nsw.gov.au/valuation/property_sales_information (http://www.lands.nsw.gov.au/valuation/property_sales_information)
How specific can property growth trend measurement be?
Highly specific.
Earlier on I mentioned that different types of property (assets) in the same suburb demonstrate different price growth performance.
See 4 case studies below that demonstrate this:
1. House Sales Case Study – Noranda 4 bed, 2 bath houses on 700 – 1000sqm lots. This market rose from a quarterly average of $338,800 in June 2005 to a quarterly average of $520,000 in June 2006 or approximately $15,000 per month over this period of time. Since June 2006 this market has risen again to a quarterly average of $604,000 in Dec 2006, but then fallen in December 2007 to a quarterly average of $504,000. An average price drop of $100,000 over 12 months.
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-700-1000sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-700-1000sqm/)
2. House Sales Case Study – Noranda 3 bed, 1 bath 700-1000sqm lots. This market rose from a quarterly average of $257,083 in Dec 2004 to a quarterly average of $492,000 in Dec 2006 or approximately $10,000 per month over this period of time. Since December 2006 this market has been relatively flat with quarterly average price being $485,000 in Dec 2007. Predominantly duplex residential potential
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-3-bed-1-bath-on-700-1000sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-3-bed-1-bath-on-700-1000sqm/)
3. House Sales Case Study – Noranda WA 4 bed, 2 bath houses on 350-600sqm. This market rose from a quarterly average of $347,500 in Sept 2005 to a quarterly average of $571,000 in Dec 2007. After Dec 2007 there was one sale at a price of $597,000 in Mar 2008 quarter.
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-350-600sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-wa-4-bed-2-bath-houses-on-350-600sqm/)
4. House Sales Case Study – Noranda 3 bed, 1 bath 350-600sqm lots. The market rose approximately from a quarterly average of $185,000 in March 2005 to $385,000 in December 2006 or approximately $10,000 per month over this 18 month period. After Dec 2006 there was one sale at a price of $402,000 in Dec 2007 quarter.
see the downloadable charts here at the bottom of the page http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-3-bed-1-bath-on-350-600sqm/ (http://www.australian-real-estate.net.au/investing/2008/08/03/rets-house-sales-case-study-noranda-3-bed-1-bath-on-350-600sqm/)
A "Property Doctor" software could be developed it is just a matter of determining what factors are relevant, what should be measured and what customers need?
Now imagine if this data above was combined with ABS data, RBA data, state government data, and other relevant research data?
Would that be powerful information?
What do you think could be measured?
What factors would be relevant?