Prediction for the year 2014

[kincella]

this is funny..
I dont necessarily agree that it will take 3 years....think it will be less
extract....................

HELLO. My name is Bernard and I'll be your guide to 2014.

Where are you guys from again? That's right, 2009. Explains the plaintive look on your faces. Don't worry; we finally got rid of that big bad recession in 2012.

[/URL][url]http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25242351-14741,00.html (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-14741,00.html)
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[bluelabel]

Haha that is fantastic, great article. You can see the beginnings of it all happening now. There are retirees’ not retiring, veggie patches are the new black, and well, dating has been down the tube for years, there is nothing new with the comments about that. (I am a boring 'linear' person, or married in the old speak)

I am intrigued about his June to September prediction for this year. maybe this article has something to do with it http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25256997-661,00.html seems plausible to me.

Any way, I am not that bothered, my plasma is, hang on, ...I don’t have one, I’ll just get in my ....I don’t have an SUV, shyte, I’ll just have to get a new ... hey I can do that, I don’t have any debt!! 2014, HERE I COME!!! WOO HOO!!:biglaugh:

:bier:

blue

[kincella]

geez blue...no debt ?? why not...debt is good imo for leverage...if it were not for OPM I would not be in such a good position as I am today...
and that article....interesting how people can act like sheep and all do the same thing at the same time...ps btw I like sheep...used to have a pet one on the farm
if you follow my posts on the other forum...been following just 2 suburbs for years now...both were selling the cheap stock Mar 08 to Oct 08..after the rate cuts started coming...dramatic change took place late November...all the cheap stock had gone and the more expensive houses were selling...the middle or average home had been taken off the market...
now another change since late Feb.....a lot more houses have come onto the markets....all below the 300k mark....in the cheaper suburb....that tells me that a load of people have decided to take advantage of the fhb market..and are off loading to that market before Jun 09, in case the grant gets slashed....
I need to check with friends a bit more...but I think those sellers are looking to upgrade with the cheaper rates...and expecting bargains from the higher end of the market...
Bernard Salt is very in tune with the baby boomers...he looks like one...the age gives it away....so lets see how his prediction pans out....but I think its happening now...
anyway the middle market will make it good for all those sea/tree change areas...
I saw this happen after 2000, when I started buying up....but the bulk of the city folk did not appear until about 2003/04...the tree changers...so I sold some props to them....
am sure some will come my way again....
cheers
:sheep:

[kincella]

after checking the sold props and whats on the market today...for the suburbs that I watch closely
...I am calling the property market direction, it has officially left the bear cave and has now entered the bull ring....
it has everything to do with interest rates

[bluelabel]

so what is this bull and bear picture you are painting for us kincella? please explain...

Also, what sort of suburbs are you looking at if you dont mind me asking, ie demopgraphics, density, zoning, you dont have to give away any trade secrects ;)

:bier:

blue

[kincella]

Morning Bluelabel,
good to log on and see 6 new posts...and they were not all mine....

the suburbs I watch are Albury, Wodonga and Toorak.....3 very different suburbs...

Wodonga turned over 60 sales for Mar 09, not sure what they smoke over there...but they get higher prices than Albury,
Albury has been turning over on average a consistent 30 sales a month for the past year....last month it was 38
all 3 suburbs had some bargains until Oct, by Nov the fhb had taken them all out.....I have not sighted a bargain since...
Believe the middle range homes were taken off the market in the last year, and only cheapies came into the market and sold for more than they would have achieved in a normal market.
In Feb 09 a flood of cheaper properties came into the market.....but they are inferior properties....so they are not bargains IMO...
I asked an agent about this, he said it was all the interest from the fhb, that had encouraged others to list their props...Albury segment discussion only

Dec, I was interested in a Toorak prop listed for 440,000 it looked like a bargain....sold at auction for 660,000
I have not sighted anything at a discount or a bargain since Oct 08
I mainly watch just Toorak and Albury, as I have props there, and interested in buying more.....Wodonga has to be considered since it is so close to Albury, but I prefer Albury.
I have assumed you are familiar with Albury Wodonga, water is the problem there, after 15 years of drought, think the weir is down to 3% or 30% ???
The farming community is still big enough to have some impact on the area, so when it comes out of drought , if ever, the area will boom again. Luckily it has tourism and loads of other industries to support itself.
Treee changers moved to the area from about 2003, cashed up people from Syd and Melb, they sold their almost million dollar houses and bought the 350-400k range.
Toorak is noted for the multiple million dollar mansions, but there are stacks of ordinary units, I am only interested in the big old 1930 style, huge rooms and living areas....there are 4 developments going on within 200 metres...I have not been out and about to see what else is going on....these are bulldozed old neglected homes/units, being replaced with new units..
Terrific capital appreciation of anything decent in this suburb.
cheers